A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
