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Increasing apprehensions are present about the possibility of armed conflict involving East African countries, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive discourse has escalated in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrea has sparked a intense rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in 2023 that his nation's sea access was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrea dismissed.

Relations between the both governments have frequently been strained. After a decades-long fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it landlocked.

Five years later, a border war broke out in which more than 100,000 people died.

Latest Remarks from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated control of Eritrea's maritime facility of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and suggested the desire to seize it militarily.

Recently, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "blunder" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "corrected tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrea's Answer to the Claims

In the face of persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been confined to short statements on X from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea calling it "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a strategy of retaking previous domains.

Government spokespeople cautioned on mid-September that efforts to validate "obvious provocation" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Border

So far, there are little evidence of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the both nations.

However, in the country, government media has broadcast graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The director of human resources department of the military, the officer, recently said in an interview that the military was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Previous Roots of the Dispute

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by colonial powers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the UK forces before evolving into a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 the ruler cancelled this agreement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended internal conflict followed, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then endorsed by voters in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the exact location of their shared boundary, resulting in war in 1998.

Though this concluded in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations stayed at in dispute.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two signed a announcement that the conflict was concluded – a action that won the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then partners in the country's 2020-2022 civil war in the northern region.

But relations have later worsened again.