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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

However the current field is profoundly different. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. In an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still